If the US Nuclear Umbrella Disappears, Can Europe Deter Russia on Its Own? French President Emmanuel Macron has now openly discussed expanding the role of France’s nuclear deterrent in Europe and, for the first time, raised the possibility of stationing French nuclear weapons in allied European countries.
That should be seen as a serious strategic shift and a necessary one.
For decades, European security has depended on the American nuclear umbrella. But if the United States becomes less willing or less able to guarantee Europe’s defence, Europe must be prepared to deter Russia on its own.
The good news is that this does not require nuclear proliferation across Europe. A credible European deterrent can be developed within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, while minimizing the need for large new nuclear arsenals.
The priority now is speed and credibility.
Step 1: Build a Real Anglo-French Nuclear Partnership
The foundation already exists. The UK and France are Europe’s two nuclear powers, and the 2025 Northwood Declaration marked an important step toward closer cooperation.
But Europe now needs to go much further.
London and Paris should deepen cooperation on nuclear policy, operational planning, command structures, delivery systems, and exercises. Europe also needs delivery platforms that are independent from US infrastructure and technology, ensuring that deterrence remains credible even in the event of a full American withdrawal.
Most importantly, the Anglo-French deterrent must explicitly be presented as protecting all European allies, not just national territory. Credibility in deterrence depends not only on weapons, but also on political commitment and physical presence.
Step 2: Balance nuclear weakness with conventional strength
Europe does not need to mirror the United States weapon for weapon. It needs to make aggression against Europe impossible. That means building conventional capabilities alongside nuclear deterrence.
That means building conventional capabilities alongside nuclear deterrence.
Europe needs:
- An integrated continental air and missile defence system – a true European shield.
- Long-range precision strike capabilities capable of targeting military infrastructure deep behind enemy lines – a European spear.
- Permanent forward deployment of European troops along NATO’s eastern flank, demonstrating that an attack on one part of Europe means immediate confrontation with all of Europe.
Conventional strength strengthens nuclear deterrence by making escalation less attractive and reducing dependence on early nuclear use.
The Long-Term Goal: A Sovereign European Deterrent
In the longer term, Europe should move toward a fully sovereign European nuclear deterrent under democratic European control.
Because Europe’s security should not depend on whether a future French president or British prime minister is willing to risk Paris or London to keep other European countries safe.
A democratic and federal Europe – a true United States of Europe – could ultimately develop a common nuclear deterrent financed, governed, and controlled collectively by Europeans themselves.
If Europe wants strategic autonomy, it must ultimately be capable of ensuring its own survival.
Het tijdperk van permanente afhankelijkheid van Amerikaanse macht loopt mogelijk ten einde. Europa moet zich daarop voorbereiden.